Guessing Strategy and Probability Tables

Do not guess randomly!

Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect answer choices, you should always guess on every question that you cannot complete during the allotted time. However, because some answer choices are historically more likely to occur than others, you should not guess randomly. The following tables summarize which answer choices have occurred most frequently over the years.

LSAT Answer Choice Probabilities

 
A#
797
448
396
1641
A%
18.6%
19.6%
20.0%
19.2%
B#
890
482
407
1779
B%
20.7%
21.1%
20.5%
20.8%
C#
875
450
392
1717
C%
20.4%
19.7%
19.8%
20.1%
D#
914
487
385
1786
D%
21.3%
21.3%
19.4%
20.9%
E#
816
422
401
1639
E%
19.0%
18.4%
20.2%
19.1%
Total #
4292
2289
1981
8562
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL

All Answer Choices June 1991 - September 2016*

The table above documents the frequency with which each answer choice appeared as a percentage of all LSAT answer choices between June 1991 and September 2016 inclusive. If history holds, you would be best served on the test as a whole by always guessing answer choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a pattern such as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice (D) does not guarantee you will get the questions correct, statistically speaking guessing answer choice (D) gives you a better chance of answering correctly than guessing randomly.

Last Five Answer Choices Per Section June 1991 - September 2016*

 
A#
130
72
94
296
A%
15.3%
16.9%
22.1%
17.4%
B#
165
97
89
351
B%
19.4%
22.8%
20.9%
20.6%
C#
169
77
81
327
C%
19.9%
18.1%
19.1%
19.2%
D#
187
96
80
363
D%
22.0%
22.6%
18.8%
21.4%
E#
199
83
81
363
E%
23.4%
19.5%
19.1%
21.4%
Total #
850
425
425
1700
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL

*These statistics do not include the unreleased February 1998 and February 2001-2016 LSAT administrations.

As the second table indicates, if you cannot finish the final questions in a section, in the Logical Reasoning section you should always guess answer choice (E). In the Reading Comprehension section you should always guess answer choice (B), and in the Logic Games section you should guess (A).

Please keep in mind that the strategies discussed above hold only for pure guessing. If you are attempting to choose between two answer choices, do not choose solely on the basis of statistics alone!

On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly answers most questions but occasionally does not finish a section, quickly review the answer choices you have previously selected and use the answer that appears least as your guessing answer choice. For example, if you have completed twenty questions in a section, and your answer sheet contains a majority of (A)’s, (B)’s, (C)’s, and (E)’s, guess answer choice (D) for all of the remaining questions to get the percentage of each response as close to 20% as possible.