Guessing Strategy and Probability Tables

Do not guess randomly!

Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect answer choices, you should always guess on every question that you cannot complete during the allotted time. However, because some answer choices are historically more likely to occur than others, you should not guess randomly. The following tables summarize which answer choices have occurred most frequently over the years.

LSAT Answer Choice Probabilities

 
A#
786
443
391
1620
A%
18.5%
19.6%
20.0%
19.1%
B#
878
476
403
1757
B%
20.7%
21.0%
20.6%
20.8%
C#
867
444
386
1697
C%
20.4%
19.6%
19.7%
20.1%
D#
903
483
380
1766
D%
21.3%
21.4%
19.4%
20.9%
E#
807
416
398
1621
E%
19.0%
18.4%
20.3%
19.2%
Total #
4241
2262
1958
8461
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL

All Answer Choices June 1991 - June 2016*

The table above documents the frequency with which each answer choice appeared as a percentage of all LSAT answer choices between June 1991 and June 2016 inclusive. If history holds, you would be best served on the test as a whole by always guessing answer choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a pattern such as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice (D) does not guarantee you will get the questions correct, statistically speaking guessing answer choice (D) gives you a better chance of answering correctly than guessing randomly.

Last Five Answer Choices Per Section June 1991 - June 2016*

 
A#
129
71
93
293
A%
15.4%
16.9%
22.1%
17.4%
B#
162
96
89
347
B%
19.3%
22.9%
21.2%
20.7%
C#
166
75
78
319
C%
19.8%
17.9%
18.6%
19.0%
D#
186
96
80
362
D%
22.1%
22.9%
19.0%
21.5%
E#
197
82
80
359
E%
23.5%
19.5%
19.0%
21.4%
Total #
840
420
420
1680
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL

*These statistics do not include the unreleased February 1998 and February 2001-2016 LSAT administrations.

As the second table indicates, if you cannot finish the final questions in a section, in the Logical Reasoning section you should always guess answer choice (E). In the Reading Comprehension section you should always guess answer choice (B) or (D), and in the Logic Games section you should guess (A).

Please keep in mind that the strategies discussed above hold only for pure guessing. If you are attempting to choose between two answer choices, do not choose solely on the basis of statistics alone!

On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly answers most questions but occasionally does not finish a section, quickly review the answer choices you have previously selected and use the answer that appears least as your guessing answer choice. For example, if you have completed twenty questions in a section, and your answer sheet contains a majority of (A)’s, (B)’s, (C)’s, and (E)’s, guess answer choice (D) for all of the remaining questions to get the percentage of each response as close to 20% as possible.