Guessing Strategy and Probability Tables

Do not guess randomly!

Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect answer choices, you should always guess on every question that you cannot complete during the allotted time. However, because some answer choices are historically more likely to occur than others, you should not guess randomly. The following tables summarize which answer choices have occurred most frequently over the years.

LSAT Answer Choice Probabilities
   
A#
731
413
360
1504
A%
18.6%
19.7%
19.8%
19.1%
B#
813
434
373
1620
B%
20.7%
20.7%
20.5%
20.6%
C#
802
413
359
1574
C%
20.4%
19.7%
19.7%
20.0%
D#
844
451
357
1652
D%
21.4%
21.5%
19.6%
21.0%
E#
747
389
371
1507
E%
19.0%
18.5%
20.4%
19.2%
Total #
3937
2100
1820
7857
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL
 
All Answer Choices June 1991 - September 2014*

The table above documents the frequency with which each answer choice appeared as a percentage of all LSAT answer choices between June 1991 and September 2014 inclusive. If history holds, you would be best served on the test as a whole by always guessing answer choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a pattern such as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice (D) does not guarantee you will get the questions correct, statistically speaking guessing answer choice (D) gives you a better chance of answering correctly than guessing randomly.

Last Five Answer Choices Per Section June 1991 - September 2014*
 
A#
117
66
88
271
A%
15.0%
16.9%
22.6%
17.4%
B#
152
86
79
317
B%
19.5%
22.1%
20.3%
20.3%
C#
157
74
71
302
C%
20.1%
19.0%
18.2%
19.4%
D#
172
88
76
336
D%
22.1%
22.6%
19.5%
21.5%
E#
182
76
76
334
E%
23.3%
19.5%
19.5%
21.4%
Total #
780
390
390
1560
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL
*These statistics do not include the unreleased February 1998
and February 2001-2014 LSAT administrations.

As the second table indicates, if you cannot finish the final questions in a section, in the Logical Reasoning section you should always guess answer choice (E). In the Reading Comprehension section you should always guess answer choice (D), and in the Logic Games section you should guess (A).

Please keep in mind that the strategies discussed above hold only for pure guessing. If you are attempting to choose between two answer choices, do not choose solely on the basis of statistics alone!

On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly answers most questions but occasionally does not finish a section, quickly review the answer choices you have previously selected and use the answer that appears least as your guessing answer choice. For example, if you have completed twenty questions in a section, and your answer sheet contains a majority of (A)’s, (B)’s, (C)’s, and (E)’s, guess answer choice (D) for all of the remaining questions to get the percentage of each response as close to 20% as possible.