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Guessing Strategy and Probability Tables

Do not guess randomly!

Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect answer choices, you should always guess on every question that you cannot complete during the allotted time. However, because some answer choices are historically more likely to occur than others, you should not guess randomly. The following tables summarize which answer choices have occurred most frequently over the years.

LSAT Answer Choice Probabilities
x
LR
RC
LG
Total
A# A%
686 18.6%
386 19.6%
332 19.5%
1404 19.1%
B# B%
765 20.8%
401 20.4%
351 20.6%
1517 20.6%
C# C%
748 20.3%
390 19.8%
339 19.9%
1477 20.1%
D# D%
792 21.5%
420 21.4%
339 19.9%
1551 21.1%
E# E%
692 18.8%
368 18.7%
344 20.2%
1404 19.1%
Total #
3683
1965
1705
7353
All Answer Choices June 1991 - December 2012*

The table above documents the frequency with which each answer choice appeared as a percentage of all LSAT answer choices between June 1991 and December 2012 inclusive. If history holds, you would be best served on the test as a whole by always guessing answer choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a pattern such as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice (D) does not guarantee you will get the questions correct, statistically speaking guessing answer choice (D) gives you a better chance of answering correctly than guessing randomly.

Last Five Answer Choices Per Section June 1991 - December 2012*
x
LR
RC
LG
Total
A# A%
108 14.8%
62 17.0%
81 22.2%
251 17.2%
B# B%
146 20.0%
81 22.2%
75 20.5%
302 20.7%
C# C%
146 20.0%
70 19.2%
67 18.4%
283 19.4%
D# D%
161 22.1%
81 22.2%
74 20.3%
316 21.6%
E# E%
169 23.2%
71 19.5%
68 18.6%
308 21.1%
Total #
730
365
365
1460
“*These statistics do not include the unreleased February 1998
and February 2001-2012 LSAT administrations.

As the second table indicates, if you cannot finish the final questions in a section, in the Logical Reasoning section you should always guess answer choice (E). In the Reading Comprehension section you should always guess answer choice (B) or (E), and in the Logic Games section you should guess (A).

Please keep in mind that the strategies discussed above hold only for pure guessing. If you are attempting to choose between two answer choices, do not choose solely on the basis of statistics alone!

On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly answers most questions but occasionally does not finish a section, quickly review the answer choices you have previously selected and use the answer that appears least as your guessing answer choice. For example, if you have completed twenty questions in a section, and your answer sheet contains a majority of (A)’s, (B)’s, (C)’s, and (E)’s, guess answer choice (D) for all of the remaining questions to get the percentage of each response as close to 20% as possible.

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