Guessing Strategy and Probability Tables

Do not guess randomly!

Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect answer choices, you should always guess on every question that you cannot complete during the allotted time. However, because some answer choices are historically more likely to occur than others, you should not guess randomly. The following tables summarize which answer choices have occurred most frequently over the years.

LSAT Answer Choice Probabilities

 
A#
901
498
438
1837
A%
18.8%
19.5%
19.8%
19.2%
B#
996
540
456
1992
B%
20.7%
21.1%
20.6%
20.8%
C#
975
503
433
1911
C%
20.3%
19.7%
19.6%
20.0%
D#
1021
544
440
2005
D%
21.3%
21.3%
19.9%
21.0%
E#
908
473
444
1825
E%
18.9%
18.5%
20.1%
19.1%
Total #
4801
2558
2211
9570
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL

All Answer Choices June 1991 - November 2019*

The table above documents the frequency with which each answer choice appeared as a percentage of all LSAT answer choices between June 1991 and November 2019 inclusive. If history holds, you would typically be best served on the test as a whole by always guessing answer choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a pattern such as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice (D) does not guarantee you will get the questions correct, statistically speaking guessing answer choice (D) gives you a slightly better chance of answering correctly than guessing randomly.

Last Five Answer Choices Per Section June 1991 - November 2019*

 
A#
143
78
106
327
A%
15.1%
16.4%
22.3%
17.2%
B#
185
109
97
391
B%
19.5%
22.9%
20.4%
20.6%
C#
188
87
91
366
C%
19.8%
18.3%
19.2%
19.3%
D#
213
106
91
410
D%
22.4%
22.3%
19.2%
21.6%
E#
221
95
90
406
E%
23.3%
20.0%
18.9%
21.4%
Total #
950
475
475
1900
LR
RC
LG
TOTAL

These statistics do not include any unreleased LSAT administrations.

As the second table indicates, if you cannot finish the final questions in a section, in the Logical Reasoning section you should always guess answer choice (E). In the Reading Comprehension section you should always guess answer choice (B), and in the Logic Games section you should guess (A). This is especially the case because the answers at the end of sections are not independent of each other.

Please keep in mind that the strategies discussed above hold only for pure guessing, and are based on past answer choice frequencies. If you are attempting to choose between two answer choices, do not choose solely on the basis of statistics alone!

On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly answers most questions but occasionally does not finish a section, quickly review the answer choices you have previously selected and use the answer that appears least as your guessing answer choice. For example, if you have completed twenty questions in a section, and your answer sheet contains a majority of (A)s, (B)s, (C)s, and (E)s, guess answer choice (D) for all of the remaining questions to get the percentage of each response as close to 20% as possible.